DAVI เป็นเครื่องคำนวณมูลค่าเพื่อการศึกษา ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำการลงทุน · DAVI is an educational valuation calculator, not investment advice.
เปิดเผยวิธีคำนวณ
วิธีการคำนวณมูลค่า
How DAVI calculates — 12 published valuation models
DAVI คำนวณ กรอบมูลค่า (กรอบล่าง–กรอบบน) ของแต่ละหุ้นจาก 12 โมเดลการลงทุนที่ตีพิมพ์เผยแพร่ แล้วเทียบกับราคาตลาดปัจจุบัน ทุกค่าเป็นผลคำนวณเชิงการศึกษา ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำการลงทุน
12 published valuation models — Graham (1934), Lynch (1989), Gordon (1959), Shiller, Greenblatt (2006) and more.
ดึงงบการเงินสาธารณะ
งบกำไรขาดทุน งบดุล และกระแสเงินสด ที่บริษัทเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะ
รัน 12 โมเดล
แต่ละโมเดลให้กรอบล่าง กรอบบน หรือมูลค่าที่คำนวณได้ ตามสูตรที่เผยแพร่
เทียบกับราคาตลาด
แสดงว่าราคาปัจจุบันอยู่ตรงไหนของกรอบ เป็นการอธิบายตำแหน่งเท่านั้น
12 โมเดล
แต่ละโมเดลอ้างอิงกรอบการลงทุนที่ตีพิมพ์ พร้อมสูตรการคำนวณ
Nash NCAV
Variant of Graham 1934 + Graham zero-growth earnings power (US)
Floor = max((CA − Non-Current Liab) / Shares, 8.5 × EPS_norm — US asset-light fallback)
Graham NCAV
Benjamin Graham, "Security Analysis" (1934)
Floor = (Current Assets − Total Liab) / Shares
Graham Number
Benjamin Graham, "The Intelligent Investor" (1949)
Floor = √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Buffett DCF
Discounted Cash Flow (textbook)
10y FCF discounted + Gordon terminal value
Lynch Fair
Peter Lynch, "One Up on Wall Street" (1989)
Fair = EPS × Earnings Growth Rate (PEG = 1)
Gordon DDM
Myron Gordon (1959)
Value = D₁ / (r − g)
Justified P/E
CFA equity textbook
Value = BVPS × (ROE − g) / (r − g)
Sector P/E
Sector median multiplier
Value = EPS × sector median P/E
Greenblatt Magic
Joel Greenblatt, "The Little Book That Beats the Market" (2006)
Quality-tiered P/E (16× / 13× / 10×) × EPS — by ROIC
Pabrai 10×
Mohnish Pabrai, "The Dhandho Investor" (2007)
Fair = Owner Earnings × 10 (heads I win, tails I don't lose)
Schloss Net-Net
Walter Schloss, Graham disciple, WJS Partners (50y track)
Floor = NCAV × ⅔ (Schloss’s threshold: 67% of net-net)
Shiller CAPE
Robert Shiller, Yale (Nobel 2013)
Fair = avg EPS (10y cycle) × historical mean P/E (16)
ความแม่นยำที่วัดได้
ผลวัด walk-forward ย้อนหลัง แยกตามตลาด แสดงทั้งโมเดลที่แม่นและที่อ่อนตามจริง ไม่เลือกโชว์
US market
Lynch Fair Value
43.7% · n=334 · excess −1.3% (n=66)
Buffett DCF
40.2% · n=371 · excess +3.2% (n=49)
Shiller CAPE
38.9% · n=550 · excess +1.3% (n=78)
Nash NCAV
38.4% · n=2,356 · excess +16.3% (n=55)
Sector P/E
37.9% · n=1,521 · excess 0.0% (n=443)
Pabrai 10x
35.5% · n=1,508 · excess +2.4% (n=123)
Greenblatt Magic
35.4% · n=1,422 · excess −3.9% (n=160)
Justified P/E
34.4% · n=1,456 · excess +7.6% (n=77)
Graham Number
34.2% · n=1,370 · excess +5.3% (n=70)
Gordon DDM
33.4% · n=1,132 · excess −13.6% (n=12)
Graham NCAV
33.3% · n=216 · excess +0.8% (n=1)
Schloss Net-Net
32.9% · n=216 · excess +0.8% (n=1)
About 50% = no better than chance · highest first, weak numbers shown as they are · Second line = price toward value in 12 mo. · sample size · 12-month excess return of the below-floor group
Thai market (SET)
Schloss Net-Net
63.5% · n=3,060 · excess +55.8% (n=90)
Graham NCAV
61.6% · n=3,060 · excess +46.7% (n=238)
Gordon DDM
61.4% · n=3,314 · excess +39.0% (n=192)
Justified P/E
56.8% · n=5,695 · excess +23.4% (n=770)
Pabrai 10x
56.2% · n=4,615 · excess +5.2% (n=721)
Buffett DCF
54.8% · n=3,955 · excess +2.5% (n=903)
Greenblatt Magic
54.6% · n=4,402 · excess +9.7% (n=932)
Nash NCAV
53.0% · n=5,959 · excess +13.2% (n=1,708)
Graham Number
51.6% · n=4,402 · excess +12.1% (n=1,276)
Lynch Fair Value
48.5% · n=1,750 · excess +0.7% (n=730)
Sector P/E
48.1% · n=4,408 · excess +8.6% (n=1,600)
Shiller CAPE
46.4% · n=4,311 · excess +9.8% (n=2,462)
About 50% = no better than chance · highest first, weak numbers shown as they are · Second line = price toward value in 12 mo. · sample size · 12-month excess return of the below-floor group
Korean market (KRX)
Lynch Fair Value
62.5% · n=8 · excess +38.3% (n=6)
Graham Number
57.9% · n=57 · excess +11.6% (n=22)
Greenblatt Magic
54.4% · n=57 · excess +20.5% (n=19)
Pabrai 10x
51.7% · n=58 · excess −6.9% (n=16)
Shiller CAPE
47.4% · n=19 · excess +58.2% (n=9)
Justified P/E
43.9% · n=66 · excess +18.0% (n=15)
Sector P/E
35.1% · n=57 · excess +5.4% (n=19)
Nash NCAV
33.9% · n=59 · excess −20.8% (n=4)
Graham NCAV
33.3% · n=15 · excess —
Schloss Net-Net
33.3% · n=15 · excess —
Gordon DDM
28.1% · n=32 · excess —
Buffett DCF
9.1% · n=11 · excess +2.9% (n=2)
About 50% = no better than chance · highest first, weak numbers shown as they are · Second line = price toward value in 12 mo. · sample size · 12-month excess return of the below-floor group
Right column = 12-month excess return of the below-floor group vs the equal-weight market
DAVI Score · US
The score in the app today is version 3 (value vs the floor + price momentum) · version 3 has no published measurement yet; below are the earlier versions
Walk-forward, same window (2022 → today): a hit is a 12-month peak at least 20% above the entry price · the numbers show whether higher buckets really hit more often. Not a forecast.
Version 3 · live now
No measurement recorded yet
Version 2 · weighted by measured accuracy
| Bucket | hit | n |
|---|---|---|
| 0% of accuracy weight | 52.6% | n=3,048 |
| 1–25% of accuracy weight | 58.6% | n=916 |
| 26–50% of accuracy weight | 65.0% | n=206 |
| 51–75% of accuracy weight | 54.5% | n=44 |
| 76–100% of accuracy weight · top bucket | 62.5% | n=40 |
Version 1 · every model weighted equally
| Bucket | hit | n |
|---|---|---|
| No model below its floor | 51.7% | n=2,634 |
| 1–2 models below their floor | 58.3% | n=1,188 |
| 3–5 models below their floor | 60.7% | n=364 |
| 6–8 models below their floor | 70.0% | n=50 |
| 9+ models below their floor · top bucket | 76.2% | n=21 |
DAVI Score · TH
The score in the app today is version 3 (value vs the floor + price momentum) · version 3 has no published measurement yet; below are the earlier versions
Walk-forward, same window (2022 → today): a hit is a 12-month peak at least 20% above the entry price · the numbers show whether higher buckets really hit more often. Not a forecast.
Version 3 · live now
No measurement recorded yet
Version 2 · weighted by measured accuracy
| Bucket | hit | n |
|---|---|---|
| 0% of accuracy weight | 28.0% | n=2,076 |
| 1–25% of accuracy weight | 35.1% | n=1,081 |
| 26–50% of accuracy weight | 40.1% | n=639 |
| 51–75% of accuracy weight | 40.0% | n=552 |
| 76–100% of accuracy weight · top bucket | 49.5% | n=311 |
Version 1 · every model weighted equally
| Bucket | hit | n |
|---|---|---|
| No model below its floor | 27.8% | n=1,229 |
| 1–2 models below their floor | 31.5% | n=1,463 |
| 3–5 models below their floor | 36.6% | n=1,070 |
| 6–8 models below their floor | 44.0% | n=669 |
| 9+ models below their floor · top bucket | 44.1% | n=299 |
DAVI Score · KR
The score in the app today is version 3 (value vs the floor + price momentum) · version 3 has no published measurement yet; below are the earlier versions
Walk-forward, same window (2022 → today): a hit is a 12-month peak at least 20% above the entry price · the numbers show whether higher buckets really hit more often. Not a forecast.
Version 3 · live now
No measurement recorded yet
Version 2 · weighted by measured accuracy
No measurement recorded yet
Version 1 · every model weighted equally
| Bucket | hit | n |
|---|---|---|
| No model below its floor | 57.5% | n=40 |
| 1–2 models below their floor | 58.6% | n=29 |
| 3–5 models below their floor | 91.7% | n=24 |
| 6–8 models below their floor | 100.0% | n=8 |
| 9+ models below their floor · top bucket | 100.0% | n=4 |
ML Ranking Model (XGBoost v1)
Live since May 2026; the live history is too short to judge 12-month accuracy · rank-IC (Spearman) over the first 2–5 weeks, US 0.029 (near 0 = no short-horizon predictive power seen yet) · reported monthly as it is
Neural Score
Measurement not published yet
Computed 20 Oct 2026
Backtest results are not investment advice, and past results do not indicate future ones · a hit-rate near 50% = no better than chance
ความแม่นยำในอดีตไม่ได้บอกผลลัพธ์ในอนาคต · Past accuracy does not indicate future results.
ลองดูกรอบมูลค่าหุ้นที่คุณสนใจ
See the calculated value range of a stock you follow · สมัครใช้ได้ฟรี